Vail Resorts CEO Shake-Up Spurs Hopes Of Growth Rebound

Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) shares are trading higher on Wednesday after the company announced the appointment of a new CEO on Tuesday, and reaffirmed 2025 guidance.

Vail Resorts announced that Rob Katz, executive chair and former CEO, has been appointed current CEO. Katz will succeed Kirsten Lynch, who has stepped down as CEO and as a director of the board.

Here are the key analyst takes on the development:

• JP Morgan analyst Matthew R. Boss upgraded the stock from Underweight to Neutral, with a price forecast of $167.
• BofA Securities analyst Shaun C. Kelley reiterated the Neutral rating on the stock, raising the price forecast from $160 to $175.

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JP Morgan

JP Morgan analyst Boss stated in the analyst note that with Vail Resorts nearing the end of industry normalization challenges by FY25 and former CEO Katz returning to lead, the company may be approaching an inflection point in both revenue and earnings.

This outlook is backed by unique growth drivers, Vail Resorts's portfolio of top-tier resorts—including the five most visited in North America—and its advance commitment strategy through various Epic Pass options, which helps reduce seasonal risk.

Boss sees a unique chance for the firm to accelerate its model under returning CEO Katz, who previously led Vail Resorts from 2006 to 2021 and now resumes his leadership role.

With a history of driving double-digit EBITDA growth over 15+ years and a focus on meaningful, quality-driven expansion, Katz may help the company recapture around 250bps of EBITDA margin versus FY19 through stronger operating leverage.

BofA Securities

Bank of America analyst Kelley writes that Katz's return signals urgency, highlighted by a 10% after-hours stock jump and expectations of renewed revenue momentum.

While major shifts to Vail's commitment strategy, efficiency plans, or dividend approach seem unlikely for now, Katz, who previously led transformative initiatives like the Epic Pass and M&A, could drive reinvention, given his role in shaping the industry's current model.

Price Action: MTN shares are trading higher by 12% to $169.66 at last check Wednesday.

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